What's next?

The topic that everyone walks gingerly around in this election is Race.

I don’t think the results will be determined by that factor–I certainly hope they won’t–but there’s no denying its effect.

If Barack Obama were white, the Democrats would be ahead by 12-15 points right now. The Bush Presidency and the McCain Campaign have both been that bad and events have conspired to overwhelmingly favor the party not holding the White House.

Hell, if Hillary Clinton were the Dem candidate, they’d still be up over 10 right now. Plus we wouldn’t have Sarah Palin, a plus no matter which party you favor.

Were Hillary the candidate, the campaign would be a lot rougher at this point too. The Rove crowd  would have had no reservations about attacking a woman, especially that woman, and the anti-feminist mindset that, absent Caribou Barbi, is at the heart of right wing ideology would be in full flame.

For now, though, the Rovians are still somewhat wary of going over the edge on the racial stuff, using what passes for subtlety in their ranks. It’s there, but you have to know where to look for it.

Things will get a lot more blatant from here on out, especially if Thursday night is the disaster it appears likely to be for The Best Prepared Woman Ever. The good news is that full out racism is likely to backfire, merely cementing the basest of the base and turning off a lot of independents and thinking Republicans.

Tina Fey was Doing Sarah again last night, by way, and this time it was painfully easy.

If you missed it, it’s here.

(I’d just like to say for the record that I was madly in love with Tina Fey before most of you people even heard of her.)